Decision Analysis of ANH Gas Field Using Value Focused Thinking and AHP

https://doi.org/10.35912/jbpd.v3i2.4516
Published: Jan 20, 2024

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to obtain the best gas field development scenario based on company values.

Research Methodology: This research used qualitative methods obtained from interviews, questionnaires, and discussions. The data obtained were analyzed by researchers with a focus on the content and the relationship between one content and another. This method is used in the value-focused thinking process to determine goals, criteria, and alternative solutions. In addition to qualitative methods, quantitative analysis was performed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. This method is used to determine the ranking of project selection criteria and sub-criteria and to determine the best field development scenario.

Results: The Project Profitability criterion has the largest weight score of 0.529, while the most important sub-criteria are the Profitability Index (PI) ratio and Net Present Value (NPV), with global weight scores of 0.266 and 0.263, respectively. The selected solution based on the analysis was scenario two with a weight score of 0.477 and an inconsistency value of 0.05. The scope of work for this scenario is drilling nine wells, building a pipeline, and installing a compressor, which is divided into two stages, starting with the MP-HP compressor and the LP-MP compressor.

Conclusions: This study applied VFT and AHP methods to evaluate gas field development scenarios, considering criteria such as cumulative production, cost, profitability, and risk. Profitability emerged as the most influential criterion, with the Profitability Index and Net Present Value being the highest-ranked sub-criteria. Scenario 2 was identified as the optimal development plan, involving nine wells, staged compressor installations, and pipeline construction.

Limitations: The values of reserves, production, and economic data were slightly modified due to company policies but did not change the qualitative nature of the data. An interview, Focused Group Discussion, and pairwise comparison questionnaire were distributed to Subject Matter Experts who are knowledgeable and involved in decision making in the company.

Contribution: This research provides a reference for companies who want to know how to make the right decisions according to company values, particularly in the upstream oil and gas industry.

Keywords:
1. Analytic Hierarchy Process
2. Gas Field
3. Value Focused Thinking
Authors:
1 . Adolf S. P. Manurung
2 . Utomo Sarjono Putro
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Manurung, A. S. P. ., & Putro, U. S. . (2024). Decision Analysis of ANH Gas Field Using Value Focused Thinking and AHP. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Pemasaran Digital, 3(2), 155–173. https://doi.org/10.35912/jbpd.v3i2.4516
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Vol. 3 No. 2 (2024): Januari
Articles
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    Winowoda, B., & Wasesa, M. (2024). VFT and AHP Approach to Selecting the Best Option in Decision-Making at PLN: A Case Study in the Cawang-Gandul Project. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 9(2), 119-133. doi:https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2024.9.2.2103

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  1. Adiputro, A., & Martini, R. (2022). Energy Transition Policy Analysis in Indonesia. Paper presented at the Forum Ilmu Sosial.
  2. Aprizal, M. F., Juanda, B., Ratnawati, A., & Muin, A. (2022). Indonesian Upstream Oil & Gas Governance for Sustainable Innovation. Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi, 13(1), 48-60. doi:https://doi.org/10.29244/jmo.v13i1.40427
  3. Balusa, B. C., & Gorai, A. K. (2019). Sensitivity analysis of fuzzy-analytic hierarchical process (FAHP) decision-making model in selection of underground metal mining method. Journal of sustainable mining, 18(1), 8-17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsm.2018.10.003
  4. Borodako, K., Berbeka, J., Rudnicki, M., & ?apczy?ski, M. (2019). The contribution of human capital to the performance of Knowledge-Intensive Business Services. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 1(2), 141-153. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/amor.v1i2.338
  5. Fauziah, N. A., Dewi Puspaningtyas Faeni, & Adi Wibowo Noor Fikri. (2024). Hubungan antara Learning Agility, Eksplorasi Kompetensi, dan Training and Development terhadap Kinerja Karyawan Dimediasi Komitmen Organisasi pada PT. Kaya Raya Turun Temurun Studi Ilmu Manajemen Dan Organisasi, 5(2), 223-236.
  6. Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2014). Decision analysis for management judgment: John Wiley & Sons.
  7. Keeney, R. L., & Keeney, R. L. (2009). Value-focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking: Harvard University Press.
  8. Kepner, C. H., & Tregoe, B. B. (1997). The New Rational Manager: An Updated Edition for a New World: Princeton Research Press.
  9. Kor, P., Hong, A., & Bratvold, R. (2024). Reservoir Production Management With Bayesian Optimization: Achieving Robust Results in a Fraction of the Time. SPE Journal, 29(02), 620-640. doi:https://doi.org/10.2118/217985-PA
  10. Ma, X., He, D., Wei, Y., Guo, J., & Jia, C. (2023). Enhanced gas recovery: Theory, technology, and prospects. Natural Gas Industry B, 10(4), 393-405. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ngib.2023.07.008
  11. Malinda, M. T., Sutopo, S., & Fathaddin, M. T. (2023). Improving Gas Recovery of Water Drive Gas Reservoir. Journal of Petroleum and Geothermal Technology, 4(2), 71-77. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.31315/jpgt.v4i2.10261
  12. Mappadang, A., Wijaya, A. M., & Mappadang, L. J. (2021). Financial performance, company size on the timeliness of financial reporting. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 2(4), 225-235. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/amor.v2i4.975
  13. Novianti, D., Oktaviani, A., Sarkawi, D., Aldyanto, A., & Syahidan, A. F. (2023). The Best Employee Decision Support System Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process Method at PT ASDP Indonesia Ferry (Persero). Jurnal Riset Informatika, 5(3), 295-302. doi:https://doi.org/10.34288/jri.v5i3.221
  14. Olayinka, A. A., & Mustapha, S. (2022). Analysing financial performance of listed cement industries in Nigeria: Financial Ratio Approach. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 3(4), 231-244. doi:https://doi.org/10.35912/amor.v3i4.1394
  15. Ozowe, W., Daramola, G. O., & Ekemezie, I. O. (2024). Innovative approaches in enhanced oil recovery: A focus on gas injection synergies with other EOR methods. Magna Scientia Advanced Research and Reviews, 11(1), 311-324. doi:https://doi.org/10.30574/msarr.2024.11.1.0095
  16. Resosudarmo, B. P., Rezki, J. F., & Effendi, Y. (2023). Prospects of energy transition in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 59(2), 149-177. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2023.2238336
  17. Safarzadeh, M. A., Zangeneh, H., & Kasravi, J. (2024). Near Gas-Water Contact Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide to Improve the Performance of Water Drive Gas Reservoir: Case Study. Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering, 14(1), 1-15. doi:https://doi.org/10.4236/cweee.2025.141001
  18. Salman, I. N. (2024). Analysis of acceptance and use of the agree mart mobile groceries marketplace application using the UTAUT-3 Model in Indonesia. Journal of Multidisciplinary Academic Business Studies, 1(2), 217-239.
  19. Tian, W., Liu, Y., Li, X., Jia, Y., Wang, Y., Li, L., . . . Sun, W. (2024). Field Development Optimization for Low-Productivity Gas Wells under Intermittent Production. Lithosphere, 2024(4), lithosphere_2024_2203. doi:https://doi.org/10.2113/2024/lithosphere_2024_203
  20. Winowoda, B., & Wasesa, M. (2024). VFT and AHP Approach to Selecting the Best Option in Decision-Making at PLN: A Case Study in the Cawang-Gandul Project. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 9(2), 119-133. doi:https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2024.9.2.2103
  21. Yu, H., Wang, Y., Wang, P., Dai, Q., Liu, P., Zhu, Y., . . . Lv, C. (2024). Technique progress of improving gas recovery in conventional gas reservoirs. Open Access Library Journal, 11(4), 1-16. doi:https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1111364