Jakman

Article Details

Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Maret

Articles

The Purbaya Effect: Event Study of Leadership Signalling

I Inta Hartaningtyas Rani L Lestari Adhi Widyowati J Jara Hardiyanti Jalih
31 March 2026 Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Maret https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v7i2.5895
Abstract

Purpose: This study examines how the appointment of a new Minister of Finance affects stock price movements in the Indonesian capital market, with a focus on banking and manufacturing, which are directly affected sectors.

Methodology/approach: This study uses an event-study design to investigate the existence of the “Purbaya Effect” by analyzing daily movements of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and sectoral indices. Abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns are calculated using a 30-day window centered on the appointment date (September 8, 2025). Cross-sector sensitivity is assessed by comparing the short-term price responses of banking stocks, which are closely linked to fiscal-monetary transmission, and manufacturing stocks, which are more sensitive to demand expectations, the cost of capital, and risk sentiment.

Results/Findings: The results confirm a significant “Purbaya Effect” at the aggregate market level following the ministerial appointment. Sectoral analysis indicates asymmetric responses: manufacturing stocks exhibit statistically significant price adjustments (sig 0.00<0.05), whereas the banking sector shows no comparable significant response (sig 0.183>0.05).

Conclusions: Every cabinet change signals the quality of economic information to the capital market, which can be responded to negatively or positively

Limitations: The study is confined to a 60-day event window, covers only two major sectors, and does not explicitly control for other macroeconomic or political events that may overlap with the announcement period.

Contributions: The confirmation of the ‘Purbaya Effect” demonstrates that fiscal communication should be considered a signalling instrument with a real impact on price formation and capital allocation in the market.

Keywords: Event Study Market Reaction Policy Leadership Signaling Theory Strategy Volatility
How to Cite
“
Rani, I. H., Widyowati, L. A., & Jalih, J. H. (2026). The Purbaya Effect: Event Study of Leadership Signalling. Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, Dan Manajemen, 7(2), 393–402. https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v7i2.5895
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS) BibTeX
References
  1. Abdul Rosid, Isabella, A. A., Hartoto, H., Siswantini, T., & Suharyati, S. (2024). Behavioral Finance In Decision Making: An Experimental Study Of Investor Bias And Indonesian Private Market Anomalies. . Jurnal Ekonomi, 13(3), 579-589. https://doi.org/https://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi/article/view/5009
  2. Alfia, K., & Amrie, F. (2024). Peran Moderasi Kepemimpinan dalam Pengujian Akuntabilitas Kinerja Pemerintah (The Moderating Role of Leadership in Accountability). Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen (JAKMAN), 5(4), 311-325. https://doi.org/ttps://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v5i4.3228
  3. Andersen, J, Hasudungan, A, Viknesuari, S,…Lukas, E. N. (2023). The Structural and Macroeconomic Determinants of Manufacturing Export-Value Performance in ASEAN Countries. Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura, 26(1), 69-88. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v26i1.3716
  4. Andersen, H., & Juelsrud, R. E. (2024). Optimal capital adequacy ratios for banks. Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 5(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100107
  5. Anese, G., Corazza, M., Costola, M., & Pelizzon, L. (2023). Impact of public news sentiment on stock market index return and volatility. Computational Management Science, 20(1), 20. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-023-00454-2
  6. Arnoldus, & Kristianus. (2025). Purbaya: Dana Rp200 Triliun di Perbankan Mulai Gerakkan Pertumbuhan Kredit. Investor.Id. https://investor.id/finance/414526/purbaya-dana-rp200-triliun-di-perbankan-mulai-gerakkan-pertumbuhan-kredit#goog_rewarded
  7. Boug, P., Brasch, T. V., Cappelen, Å., Hammersland, R., Hungnes, H. Vigtel, T. C. (2023). Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 76, 103524. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103524
  8. Connelly, B. L., Certo, S. T., Reutzel, C. R., DesJardine, M. R., & Zhou, Y. S. (2025). Signaling Theory: State of the Theory and Its Future. Journal of Management, 51(1), 24-61. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/01492063241268459
  9. Eden, L., Miller, S. R., Khan, S., Weiner, R. J., & Li, D. (2022). The event study in international business research: Opportunities, challenges, and practical solutions. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(5), 803-817. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-022-00509-7
  10. Faferko, A., Liu, B., Suardi, S.,, & Ding, D. (2025). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence from Australia. InternationalReview of Economics & Finance, 104, 104667. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104667
  11. Fang, G., Zhou, X., Ma, H., Zhao, X., Deng, Y., & Xie, L. (2025). Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and systemic financial risk: Evidencefrom China. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 76, 102356. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102356
  12. Hadiwibowo, I., & Saraswati, E. (2024). Determinan Return Saham dengan Profitabilitas sebagai Variabel Intervening. Reviu Akuntansi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 8(2), 236-255. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18196/rabin.v8i2.22311
  13. Hastuti, R., Irawan, I., & Hukom, A. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga dan Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Return Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Studi Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 2(1), 21-36. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/sekp.v2i1.1221
  14. Hatmanti, A., & Sudibyo, B. (2017). Pengaruh Pelantikan Kabinet Kerja Hasil Reshuffle Jilid Ii Terhadap Harga Saham Lq-45. Jurnal Economia, 13(1), 1. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v13i1.11797
  15. Herdiana, H., Sobandi, A., Rasto, & Ergashevna, B. K. (2025). Global Research Frontiers and Thematic Evolution in Behavioural Finance: A Bibliometric Review. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan (JRAK), 13(3), 645-664. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.17059/jrak.v13i3.92138
  16. Hernawati, C., & Prijadi, R. (2025). Evaluating GOTO Investment Strategies After a Major Investor Exit: A DiD Approach. Jurnal Akuntansi,Keuangan dan Manajemen (JAKMAN), 6(4), 1081-1092. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v6i4.4648
  17. Indahwati, I., & Yulia Agustini, N. K. (2024). Future Prospect Versus Past Performance Menjelang Pemilihan Umum tahun 2024 (Future Prospect Versus Past Performance Ahead of the 2024 General Election). jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen (JAKMAN), 6(1), 17-28. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v6i1.3351
  18. Islami, L. N., & Sarwoko, E. (2012). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Pergantian Menteri Keuangan (Event Study Saham Yang Terdaftar di BEI). Modernisasi, , 8(1). https://doi.org/https://ejournal.unikama.ac.id/index.php/JEKO/article/view/206/591
  19. Kusnindar, A. A., & Puspitasari, A. Y. (2020). Pengaruh Proses Politik, Sebelum Selama Dan Sesudah Pilpres 2019 Terhadap Harga Saham. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, Manajemen Dan Ekonomi Islam (JAM-EKIS), 3(2). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.36085/jam-ekis.v3i2.741
  20. Lorenza, R. S., Octavia, R., Shafitranata, S., Winanti, A., & Madyoningrum. (2022). Dampak Covid 19 Terhadap Perubahan Harga Saham Perbankan di Indonesia Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi (The Impact of Covid 19 on Changes in Banking Stock Prices in Indonesia Before and During the Pandemic). Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan dan Manajemen (JAKMAN), 4(1), 43-56. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v4i1.1707
  21. Nidrah, Kurniawati, R., & Rahim, F. (2025). Sensitivity Sector State-Owned Banking towards Signal Policy Fiscal: Event Study Change of Finance Minister on Himbara Banks Shares. Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu, 5(7). https://doi.org/10.58471/jms.v5i07
  22. Puspitaningtyas, Z. (2019). Empirical evidence of market reactions based on signaling theory in Indonesia stock exchange. Investment Management and Financial Innovations ,, 16(2), 66-77. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.06
  23. Quraisy, & A. (2020). Data Normality Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk Tests. Journalof Health Education Economics Science and Technology, 3(1), 7-11.
  24. Ramadhanti, N. A., Kurniawati, A. T.,, & Pandin, M. Y. R. (2024). Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter Dan Fiskal Terhadap Pengelolaan Portofolio Di Pasar Modal Indonesia (Study Kasus Pada Bank Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis (JEBS), 4(6). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.47233/jebs.v4i6.2236
  25. Rasyid, S., Darmawati, D., Khaerany, R., Nadhifa, N., & Pratiwi, D. D. (2024). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal terhadap Pemilihan Umum Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2024. Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, Dan Manajemen, 6(2), 385-398. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v6i2.3825
  26. Ratliff, D. J., & Philipps, C. S. (2025). Which corporate leaders matter to financial markets? International Review of Financial Analysis, 97, 103780. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103780
  27. Robbins, S. P., & Coulter, M. K. (2016). Management (13th ed.). Pearson.
  28. Rochimah, A., & Yuliana, I. (2024). Eleven sectors’ reaction to the political event 2023: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Accounting and Investment, 25(2), 526-550. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18196/jai.v25i2.21000
  29. Rorlen, Astari, & Huang, V. J. (2025). Pengaruh Signaing Theory Terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham Perusahaan LQ45 Di BUrsa Efek Indonesia - Kuartil III 2024. Jurnal Serina Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 3(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24912/jseb.v3i1.35699
  30. Sidik, R. A., Suryomurti, W., & Ang, S. Y. (2024). Efficient Market Analysis of Jakarta Islamic Index (2019-2023). Al-Muamalat: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 11(2), 160-175. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15575/am.v11i2
  31. Sinaga, & J. (2022). Impact of government interventions on the stock market during COVID-19: A case study in Indonesia. SN
  32. Business & Economic, 2(136), 1-35. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-022-00312-4
  33. Siswantoro, & Siswantoro. (2020). Efek diumumkannya kasus pertama Covid-19 terhadap harga saham dan total saham yang diperdagangkan. Jurnal Akuntansi Keuangan Dan Manajemen, 1(3). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35912/jakman.v1i3.38
  34. Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Kuantitaif dan R& D. CV Alfabeta.
  35. Trisnowati, Y., & Muditomo, A. (2021). COVID-19 and Stock Market Reaction in Indonesia. Journal of Accounting and Investment, 22(1), 23-26. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.18196/jai.v22i1.8859
  36. Wicaksono, D., G., V.,, & Rahayu, S. (2024). Perbedaan Harga Saham dan Return Saham Sebelum dan Sesudah Penetapan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden Tahun 2024. Jurnal Akuntansi AKUNESA, 13(3), 283-291. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26740/akunesa.v12n3.p283-291
  37. Wicaksono, R. P. K., & Falianty, T. A. (2022). Monetary Policy and Herding Behavior: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia Stock Market. Indonesian Capital Market Review,, 14(1). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21002/icmr.v14i1.1141
  38. Xue, H., & Zheng, R. (2021). Word-of-mouth communication, noise-driven volatility, and public disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 71(1), 101363. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2020.101363
License & Copyright
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.