Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Kemiskinan Indonesia: Analisis Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan pada Mitra Dagang Utama
Abstract:
Purpose: This study aimed to analyze the effect of trade liberalization on Indonesia's exports by involving the three (South Korea, Japan, and China) major trading partner countries.
Research Methodology: This study used the concept of a gravity model, with panel data samples from 1996 - 2019. This study used independent variables such as tariffs, level of openness, exchange rates, poverty, economic growth (GDP), inflation, and distance.
Results: The study results found that tariffs and the level of openness have a significant effect on exports. It can be said that trade liberalization has an effect on exports. In addition, the variables GDP, poverty, and the exchange rate also have a significant effect on exports. Meanwhile, the two variables of inflation and distance have no effect on Indonesian exports. This condition shows the same thing among the three trading partner countries.
Limitations: Other elements were not included in this study, such as digitalization and international trade technology.
Contribution: The theoretical contribution of this research provides scientific contributions in the field of economic liberalization and poverty, and the empirical contribution shows that Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions are still dependent on trade with neighboring countries.
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- Breinlich, H., Soderbery, A., & Wright, G. C. (2018). From Selling Goods to Selling Services: Firm Responses to Trade Liberalization. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(4), 79–108. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150116
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- Caliendo, L., & Parro, F. (2012). Estimates of the trade and welfare effects of NAFTA. Review of Economic Studies, 82(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdu035
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- Dabaere, Peter, & S. M. (2010). Do Tariffs Matter for the Extensive Margin of International Trade? An Empirical Analysis. Journal of International Economics, 81, 163–169.
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- Elmslie, B. (2018). Retrospectives Adam Smith's Discovery of Trade Gravity. Journal of Economic Perspective, 32(2), 209–222.
- ENDOH, M. (2010). Trade creation and trade diversion in the EEC, the LAFTA and the CMEA: 1960-1994. Applied Economics, 31(2), 207–216. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499324435
- Erkisi, K., & Ceyhan, T. (2019). Trade Liberalization And Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis For Transition Economies In Europe. Journal of Economics Finance and Accounting, 6(2), 82-94.
- Fauzel, S. (2020, September). Investigating the Impact of Trade on Poverty Reduction in a Small Island Economy. In Forum for Social Economics (pp. 1-20). Routledge.
- Fazio, G., MacDonald, R., & Melitz, J. (2008). Trade costs, trade balances and current accounts: An application of gravity to multilateral trade. Open Economies Review, 19(5), 557–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-008-9082-8
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- Ghazalian, P. L. (2015). On the Magnitude of the Geographic Distance Effect on Primary Agricultural and Processed Food Trade. Agribusiness (New York, N.Y.), 31(2), 148–170. https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21397
- Ghose, ?it K. (2009). Trade liberalization and manufacturing employment (Vol. 56).
- Gómez-Herrera, E. (2013). Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade. Empirical Economics, 44(3), 1087–1111. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0576-2
- Gouveia, S., Rebelo, J., Lourenço-Gomes, L., & Guedes, A. (2017). International demand for the Douro (Portugal) river cruises: A gravity model approach. Tourism Economics, 23(8), 1679–1686. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617692478
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